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Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past remote Japanese territory as China escalates strains over the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Japan but also claimed by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a retraction from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts the island as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the current situation without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the US and other allies including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, active near the island over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs operating near Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said China had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since the Japanese official made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

However, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.