🔗 Share this article

In October 2022, as Rishi Sunak assumed office as British prime minister, he became the fifth consecutive UK leader to occupy the role in six years.

Triggered in the UK by Britain's EU exit, this signified exceptional governmental instability. So what term captures what is occurring in France, now on its fifth prime minister in 24 months – three of them in the last ten months?

The latest prime minister, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on that day, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in return for support from Socialist lawmakers as the cost of his administration's continuation.

But it is, at best, a short-term solution. The EU’s number two economic power is trapped in a ongoing governmental crisis, the likes of which it has not witnessed for many years – possibly not since the establishment of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no simple way out.

Governing Without a Majority

Essential context: ever since Macron called an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, France has had a divided assembly split into three opposing factions – the left, the far right and his own centrist coalition – none with anything close to a majority.

Simultaneously, the country faces twin financial emergencies: its debt-to-GDP ratio and deficit are now almost twice the EU limit, and hard constitutional deadlines to pass a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are nigh.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both the prime ministers before Lecornu – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In mid-September, the president appointed his trusted associate Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu presented his government team – which proved to be largely unchanged from before – he encountered anger from both supporters and rivals.

So much so that the following day, he resigned. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in recent French history. In a dignified speech, he blamed political intransigence, saying “partisan attitudes” and “personal ambitions” would make his job virtually unworkable.

A further unexpected development: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron asked him to stay on for two more days in a final attempt to salvage cross-party backing – a task, to put it gently, filled with challenges.

Next, two of Macron’s former PMs publicly turned on the embattled president. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and leftist LFI refused to meet Lecornu, promising to vote down any and every new government unless there were early elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, engaging with all willing listeners. At the end of his 48 hours, he went on TV to say he believed “a path still existed” to avoid elections. The leader's team confirmed the president would appoint a new prime minister 48 hours later.

Macron honored his word – and on Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So this week – with Macron commenting from the wings that the nation's opposing groups were “creating discord” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Could he survive – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a critical address, the young prime minister outlined his financial plans, giving the Socialist party, who oppose Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were expecting: Macron’s key policy would be suspended until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already supportive, the Socialists said they would refuse to support no-confidence motions proposed against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the government should survive those votes, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, however, by no means certain to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS clearly stated that it would be demanding further compromises. “This,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

A Cultural Shift

The issue is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, similar to the Socialists, the right-leaning parties are themselves split on dealing with the administration – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and future viability – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the far-right RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR want him out.

To achieve that, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in two years is, like his predecessors, toast.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Even if, by some miracle, the dysfunctional assembly summons up the collective responsibility to approve a budget this year, the prospects for the government beyond that look grim.

So is there a way out? Snap elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: surveys indicate pretty much every party bar the RN would see reduced representation, but there would remain no decisive majority. A fresh premier would face the same intractable arithmetic.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to step down. After a presidential vote, his replacement would disband the assembly and aim for a legislative majority in the following election. But this also remains unclear.

Polls suggest the future president will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that French electorate, having elected a far-right president, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

Ultimately, France may not escape its predicament until its politicians accept the new political reality, which is that clear majorities are a bygone phenomenon, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Many think that cultural shift will not be possible under the country’s current constitution. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and actively discourages – the formation of ruling alliances typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”