UK Diplomats Advised Regarding Military Action to Topple Zimbabwe's Leader

Newly disclosed documents reveal that the UK's diplomatic corps advised against British military action to remove the former Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "serious option".

Policy Papers Reveal Considerations on Addressing a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator

Policy papers from Tony Blair's government indicate officials weighed up options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who declined to leave office as the country fell into violence and economic chaos.

Following Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential options.

Isolation Strategy Deemed Not Working

Officials agreed that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was not working, having not managed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Courses considered in the documents were:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the approach advocated by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that changing a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military intervention would cause significant losses and have "serious consequences" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a severe human and political catastrophe – resulting in widespread bloodshed, significant exodus of refugees, and instability in the region – we judge that no African state would support any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."

The document adds: "Nor do we judge that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would authorise or participate in military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Long-Term Strategy Recommended

The Prime Minister's advisor, a senior official, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been ruled out, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, noting: "We must devise a way of revealing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then subsequently, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has said and done".

The Zimbabwean leader was ultimately removed in a military takeover in 2017, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise Thabo Mbeki into joining a armed alliance to depose Mugabe were strongly denied by the former UK premier.